Started Oct 02, 2018 03:09PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 31, 2019 11:59PM UTC

Papua New Guinea (PNG): If electoral violence occurs, in which phase(s) of the electoral cycle will it happen?

Definition of Electoral Violence

Electoral violence is defined as 10 or more fatalities occurring in the 6 months before through 3 months after Election Day reported in credible open source media reports (for example, from sources such as BBC, Reuters, and AP). The fatalities must be reported as being specifically related to the election, electoral processes, candidates, parties, electoral issues, or election-related demonstrations.

To qualify for a positive resolution, 10 EV fatalities (as previously defined) must be met within that specific phase.

Definitions of the Phases of the Electoral Cycle

Phase 1 is the electoral campaign leading up to election day (from [at most] 6 months prior to the start of polling)

Phase 2 is the start of polling (election day could be one day or it could take place over the course of several days) to the announcement of the election results.

Phase 3 is the post-election results outcome and their aftermath ([at most] 3 months after the announcement of the election results).

Crowd forecast over time