Started Oct 02, 2018 03:09PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 31, 2019 11:59PM UTC

Papua New Guinea (PNG): Which dynamic will account for the greatest number of election violence-related fatalities?

Definition of Electoral Violence

Electoral violence is defined as 10 or more fatalities. All electoral violence incidents or fatalities must occur in the 6 months before through 3 months after Election Day and reported in credible open source media reports (for example, from sources such as BBC, Reuters, and AP). The incidents or fatalities must be reported as being specifically related to the election, electoral processes, candidates, parties, electoral issues, or election-related demonstrations.

Definitions of Perpetrators

State Actors
Incumbent Governmentperpetrators include civilian actors within the executive branch, sub-national actors such as governors and mayors, and majority party legislators in parliament.

Ruling Party Elites include the formal leadership of incumbent parties as well as major funders, and known informal advisors to the formal party leadership.

Security Forces include national military, intelligence, constabulary, national and local police, and unarmed community police.
Cross Border Supporters are governments from other countries facilitating electoral violence through in-country proxies.

Non-State Actors: Non-Incumbent Political Parties and Candidates
Opposition Political Parties include registered political parties and coalitions which are not currently holding executive office and are not the majority or member of a majority coalition in the legislature.

Boycotted Parties include registered political parties choosing or forced to boycott a given election.
Excluded Parties include political groupings which have not achieved official registration by electoral authorities to be a bona fide political party and contest for office.

Non-State Actors: Youth Wings and Armed/Unarmed Pressure Groups
Youth Wings include those formal and informal groups of youth organized by political parties to work at the direction of those parties.

Armed/Unarmed Pressure Groups include established youth gangs and cliques (gangs organized for the purpose of committing electoral violence in a specific election) motived by compensation, identity, ideology, or disruption.

Non-State Actors: Armed Groups
Vigilante or Militia Groups include organized groups of armed individuals established to provide protection for a particular group or location or to target another identity or threat for attack.

Insurgents include separatist, independence, identity, ideologically or religiously motivated groups seeking to discredit, disrupt, or derail an election.

Criminal Groups include international organized crime groups, narco-gangs, and other domestic organized criminal enterprises engaging in electoral violence to protect their illicit activities.

Other Non-State Actors
Influential Business Leaders include those individuals who fund political parties and candidates which are known to engage in electoral violence; or provide direct funding to perpetrators to commit acts of violence motivated by ideology or profit.

Ethnic, Religious or Other Traditional Leaders include identity leaders of ethnic communities, religious extremists, and community bosses.

Unions/Trade Organizations include formal associations of workers which engage in political activism.

Crowd forecast over time