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The EVPM enables participants to collaborate with others on generating crowdsourced forecasts on the probability of election violence occurring in given elections, its intensity, tactics employed, and phase of the electoral cycle.

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CURRENT CROWDSOURCED RISK ASSESSMENT FOR ELECTORAL VIOLENCE

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LAST UPDATED: 9 JULY, 2018

Elections we are actively monitoring

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At Risk Elections

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Other Elections

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Election History

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Here’s how you can make forecasts that will add to our collective insights:

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Sign Up

Create an account to get access to all the forecasting questions and become an official member of the community.

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Select a forecast question

Select an election you have a perspective on, make a forecast, and provide a rationale for why you’re making your forecast.

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Forecasts are combined

Anyone can make a forecast at any time. While they do, we aggregate everyone’s input in to what we call the “crowd forecast.”

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Use the Findings

Use the crowd's forecast findings to pursue and inform violence prevention initiatives in your organization.


The Electoral Violence Prediction Market is supported by:

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With sponsorship from:

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